Tsui Siu Ming: Wednesday david holmes operating strategy Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University professor of capital formation and development / famous macroeconomists) long-term david holmes stagnation in its latest article [beauty trap? Reserve Bureau Hutch support] david holmes the role of loose monetary policy and low interest rates on economic recovery, are analyzed. The article mentioned a recent IMF study will be the subject of attention is " Larry Summers (Larry Summers), david holmes Paul Ke Luming (Paul Krugman) and various Fed officials have commented in recent years, the United States and other developed problem of slow growth economies; these ideas will have a major impact in 2014 and beyond Fed "and" Summers to explain the slow growth of the most talked david holmes about controversy, he said, after the economic crisis is only in the past considered the past. And now there is no past, he boldly stated that the reasons for sluggish growth over the past 10 years is a fundamental structural change, which he called "long-term stagnation": natural (or equilibrium) real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates "forever." ground dropped below zero - may be as low minus 2-3%. By Summers's argument, resulting in this situation there are two possible reasons: excess savings from Asia, as well as by information technology caused a long-term decline in the relative price of capital goods, reduced investment demand relative to savings. (Ke Luming provides more likely explanation: population growth or decline in productivity.) Regardless of the reason, if Summers is right, we're in trouble. The central bank may be difficult to maintain a sufficiently low real interest rates in a recession, because nominal interest rates can not go below zero. In Summers proposed scenario, the equilibrium interest rate means that a long period of negative growth in the doldrums. "Actually, I am more concerned about how to evaluate the FED current david holmes economic situation in the United david holmes States and beyond," the Fed's research and statistics director David Wilcox (David Wilcox) david holmes and its partners that the recession began in December 2007, the severity of long duration, size and skill has been gradually eroded capital stock and labor. Therefore, in the past few years, the United States slow growth of output and employment is the result of the financial crisis, rather than the result of exogenous structural change. "Wilcox should not casually that he should be better than any outsider, even those famous scholar immune FED policy more clearly than he practiced the outcome, so Wilcox said," Over the past few years, the United States slow growth of output and employment is the result of the financial crisis, rather than the result of exogenous structural change. "Thought-provoking article Jeffrey david holmes Frank Stewart clearly said:." No customers, businesses david holmes will not be building a new plant, david holmes even if the cost of capital is low; but who can not find work in the long-term may be completely out of the labor force. Consequently, as Wilcox and colleagues forcefully pointed out that labor productivity and effective growth path into the fall. Cumulative supply gap - Wilcox and his colleagues estimated that the current 7% lower than the level of potential output before 2007 - the output gap may be greater than the total extent of continued sluggish demand caused by the current. "So Jeffrey Frankel said:" This unfortunate history to make the Fed's job more difficult than ever, because it further david holmes limits the ability of decision makers without causing inflation to stimulate growth. At the same time, due to the possible cause long-term damage to growth, maintaining sufficient david holmes demand stimulus when high unemployment becomes even more important. "From this, Wilcox was reported that" in 2014 to maintain david holmes monetary easing "is david holmes very important. Yet FED's new master 席耶伦 mentor Professor Stiglitz has long rally for FED delisting up, then, the market study should believe the Fed's director of research and statistics? david holmes Or should believe Professor Stiglitz words? speak another master 克鲁明 research at the annual meeting of the IMF also stunned the world, he said : "Even if the long term, for the U.S. budget deficit and debt worries are unnecessary. david holmes Deficit hawks worried that global investors will one day no longer interested in expanding American debt holdings, leading david holmes to a sharp depreciation of the dollar. But g Luming Fu controversial conclusion is that even if it happens this scene, the interest rate will not rise, while the depreciation of the United States economy will have expansionary effect (by increasing david holmes net exports). Its policy implication is, do not worry too much about the long-term debt problems, and to be more worried about the last three years of financial contraction, restricted the demand needed for the American economy. " Jeffrey Frankel said:" In fact, policy failures considerable. Although timely david holmes action to prevent the financial collapse of 2008, the beginning of the monetary and fiscal stimulus for 2009 also contributed to the end of the recession, but since then the recovery is extremely slow, mainly because it is destructive fiscal policy: 2010-2013 by misleading drag; 2011-2013 david holmes "repeated homemade crisis" and the lack of progress on the real long-term financial problems. All in all, in the past three years, these annual financial mistakes may have caused more than one percentage point reduction in economic growth in the United States. "But Jeffrey Frankel remain optimistic view of 2014, he said:" david holmes four years, fiscal policy is no longer the first time is expected to have a negative impact on growth. Of course, if fiscal policy can have a positive impact so much the better; but no longer play a negative role has enough to celebrate. "However, worrying yes, Jeffrey Frankel yet 2014 optimism in the hands of future FED Yellen's deputy Fisher join. Bernanke" parting words "referred to troubled U.S. outlook One big problem is that, in the past few years of economic turmoil if long-term productivity of American workers destroyed. currently known, in the past seven years, the growth rate of labor productivity are less than 2 percent for five years. seven years ago, this growth rates of long-term over 3%. Bernanke believes that this may be serious consequences of the financial crisis, such as credit tight curb innovation and productivity-enhancing investments, or may simply reflect a slowdown in sales growth. Another possibility is that Productivity growth data reflects the recession has nothing to do with the long-term trend on Ping Yellen and Fisher will be able to turn things david holmes around it?
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